Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy has been a feature of the circulation of the South-West Indian Ocean region for about the last week. For the past few days, it has drifted slowly westwards, following a track roughly parallel to the Equator.
Freddy is a relatively compact, but nevertheless intense system, with a central pressure estimated
to be 939 hPa and average winds of approximately 200 km/h. Maximum wind gusts in association with
this system are however likely to be significantly stronger, estimated to be about 285 km/h. Interestingly, given the compact structure of Freddy, the most extreme winds will only be experienced within a 200km radius of the system.
In accordance with the latest track forecast for Freddy issued by the WMO designated Regional
Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) located at La Reunion Freddy is expected to
continue along a predominantly west south-westward (WSW) track in the coming days, with a projected landfall along the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday evening. Whilst there is some degree of uncertainty regarding the exact location of Madagascan landfall, according to RSMC La Reunion it will probably be between the coastal towns of Mahonoro and Mananjary.
During the latter half of this coming week, the remnants of Freddy will continue to swirl over the
southern half of Madagascar. It is useful and relevant to keep in mind that tropical marine systems such as Freddy weaken significantly once they move overland. Such weakening is due to two physical processes.
Firstly, the system is deprived of its primary source of energy, namely the release of latent heat in the
moist lower atmosphere, overlying a warm ocean surface. Secondly, such systems typically encounter
significant friction when interacting with a land surface. Therefore, once Freddy makes landfall over
Madagascar, the intensity of the system, both in terms of central pressure and wind circulation, will lessen significantly. However, a potentially dangerous (and uncertain) phase during the life cycle of Freddy will occur later on Wednesday, 22 February and into the early hours of Thursday 23, February, when the system is expected to slide out into the very warm ocean waters of the southern Mozambique Channel.
The current official, highest confidence track from RSMC La Reunion suggests that Freddy MAY make landfall this Friday afternoon 24 February near Beira, a large port city roughly midway along the Mozambican coastline. Thereafter, there is a possibility (albeit small) that Freddy
might move inland, possibly affecting eastern Zimbabwe and perhaps including the north-eastern sector of Limpopo province. In the event of the latter scenario, even the weakened, dissipating remnants of Freddy would still have the capacity to deliver significantly heavy rainfall as well as the possibility of extensive flooding. In the light of the recent (unrelated) flooding event which affected Limpopo and Mpumalanga last week, any renewed flooding over last-mentioned regions could potentially be catastrophic.
The public can rest assured that SAWS, in consultation with National and Provincial Disaster Management structures, will continue to monitor developments on a 24/7 basis and will issue regular updates in this regard, across a variety of media and social media platforms.
Furthermore, the public is urged and encouraged to regularly follow weather forecasts on television and radio. Updated information in this regard will regularly be available at www.weathersa.co.za as well as via the SA Weather Service Twitter account @SAWeatherServic – www.weathersa.co.za
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